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2024-12-13 00:58:53

The yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since November 29th, at 151.55.CITIC Securities: In November, the PPI turned positive more than expected, and the core CPI continued to improve. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price data in November 2024 showed that the boosting effect on the economy after the policy shift in late September initially appeared at the "price end", mainly in two aspects: "PPI turned positive" and "continuous improvement of core CPI". In terms of PPI, this month's PPI turned positive more than expected, and the main contributions came from "the effect of trade-in for new products is gradually appearing at the price end of related industries" and "the acceleration of physical workload of infrastructure has boosted the prices of raw materials industries in the upper and middle reaches". It is embodied in the remarkable improvement of PPI in computer machine manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, durable consumer goods (means of subsistence), non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. In terms of CPI, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI further declined to 0.2%, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, it was largely affected by the over-seasonal decline in food prices. The core CPI, which the market paid more attention to, continued to improve slightly on the margin, with the year-on-year reading rising from 0.1% at the bottom of September to 0.2% in October and 0.3% in November. In terms of splitting, the CPI decline of the three major durable consumer goods and services has narrowed compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the combination of "CPI 0.2%+PPI -2.5%" reveals that China is still facing significant "low inflation" pressure, and it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the price level with a package of incremental policies. Looking back, if the boosting effect of the "two new" policies on the demand of downstream industrial products and the driving effect of the accelerated issuance of special bonds on the physical workload of infrastructure can be released continuously, it will provide some support for the improvement of PPI; However, if you want to see the PPI continue to turn positive significantly, you may have to wait for the policy to further push the physical workload and real estate start-up data, as well as the more stringent supply-side optimization policies in some areas with more production capacity.Samsung is betting that XR's first lightweight AR glasses will ship 50,000 units next year. Samsung is actively promoting the Extended Reality (XR) project called Infinite, which is scheduled to be publicly displayed at the Galaxy Unpacked conference in January next year, and will be officially released in the third quarter of 2025. Samsung Electronics has made a production plan for XR equipment, and it is expected to ship more than 20,000 to 30,000 units in the third and fourth quarters of next year respectively.


Japan Fanuc shares rose nearly 4%.Huaxi Securities: In 2025, the rate of RRR cut and interest rate cut may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp. Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that this Politburo meeting revisited "moderately loose monetary policy", and the market inevitably associated with the magnificent combination of monetary and fiscal policies in 2008-2010. Specific to this round of monetary policy, it may be similar to it, not only the tone has changed, but also the framework has changed from the previous cross-cycle (or both cross-cycle and counter-cycle) to counter-cycle adjustment, which is likely to point to an increase in the adjustment range of reserve ratio and policy interest rate. Looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp (the rate in 2024), and the possibility of further increasing the rate in the face of extreme circumstances is not ruled out. The specific degree and duration of easing may depend on the economic situation.CITIC Securities: In November, the PPI turned positive more than expected, and the core CPI continued to improve. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price data in November 2024 showed that the boosting effect on the economy after the policy shift in late September initially appeared at the "price end", mainly in two aspects: "PPI turned positive" and "continuous improvement of core CPI". In terms of PPI, this month's PPI turned positive more than expected, and the main contributions came from "the effect of trade-in for new products is gradually appearing at the price end of related industries" and "the acceleration of physical workload of infrastructure has boosted the prices of raw materials industries in the upper and middle reaches". It is embodied in the remarkable improvement of PPI in computer machine manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, durable consumer goods (means of subsistence), non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. In terms of CPI, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI further declined to 0.2%, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, it was largely affected by the over-seasonal decline in food prices. The core CPI, which the market paid more attention to, continued to improve slightly on the margin, with the year-on-year reading rising from 0.1% at the bottom of September to 0.2% in October and 0.3% in November. In terms of splitting, the CPI decline of the three major durable consumer goods and services has narrowed compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the combination of "CPI 0.2%+PPI -2.5%" reveals that China is still facing significant "low inflation" pressure, and it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the price level with a package of incremental policies. Looking back, if the boosting effect of the "two new" policies on the demand of downstream industrial products and the driving effect of the accelerated issuance of special bonds on the physical workload of infrastructure can be released continuously, it will provide some support for the improvement of PPI; However, if you want to see the PPI continue to turn positive significantly, you may have to wait for the policy to further push the physical workload and real estate start-up data, as well as the more stringent supply-side optimization policies in some areas with more production capacity.


In October, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, and the trend of steady improvement continued to consolidate. The General Administration of Market Supervision announced today (10th) that in October, 2024, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, up 0.47 points from September, and the steady improvement of corporate credit level continued to consolidate. Regionally, the top five provinces and cities in the credit index are Beijing, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shaanxi. From the perspective of industry, the index of accommodation and catering industry increased the most. In addition, the ranking of scientific research and technical service industry index has improved significantly, and it entered the top 5 of the index for the first time this year. The ranking of leasing and business services rose by two places, reaching a new high this year.In early trading, the main domestic futures contracts rose almost across the board, with coke and glass rising by over 5%, BR rubber and coking coal rising by over 4%, screw thread and soda ash rising by over 3%, iron ore rising by nearly 3%, and hot coil, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), para-xylene (PX), PTA, Shanghai Bank, Shanghai Tin, rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rising by over 2%. In terms of decline, asphalt and low sulfur fuel oil (LU) declined slightly.Tencent Video announced that it will adjust the rights and interests of VIP devices, and the rights and interests of old members will remain unchanged. Tencent Video released a statement on the adjustment of member rights and interests, saying that it will adjust the rights and interests of Tencent Video VIP devices from December 16, 2024. Tencent video VIP members who purchase, collect and activate after 0:00 on December 16th, 2024 can log in with 3 devices and play with 1 device at the same time within the validity period of this order member. Tencent Video said that the rights and interests of VIP old members remain unchanged: Tencent video VIP members who have subscribed for a continuous monthly/quarterly/annual subscription before December 16, 2024, if they continue to subscribe, will enjoy the rights of logging in 5 devices and playing 2 devices at the same time. Tencent video VIP members who purchase, collect and activate monthly/seasonal/annual cards before December 16th, 2024 can also enjoy the rights of logging in 5 devices and playing 2 devices at the same time within the validity period of this order member. Tencent video SVIP membership rights are not affected by this adjustment and remain unchanged.

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